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Decision Session – Executive Member for Economy and Strategic Planning |
20th October 2021 |
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Quarterly Economic Update
Summary
1. July 2021 saw the end of Covid-19 trading restrictions beyond international travel and the long awaited reopening of the economy. Three months later, we can now see in some detail the underlying challenges that this has revealed, including staff shortages and disruption of supply chains. The consequences of changed trading and labour mobility arrangements following our exit from the EU are clearly compounding global shortages. We can also look back on a strong quarter of performance in the city centre economy and be reassured that York remains among the best performing local economies in the UK.
2. The Government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS, or “furlough”) closed at the end of September 2021. Over the past year we have consistently highlighted the risk of unemployment that would come with the end of the scheme. As we went into September, 3,100 jobs in York were still furloughed, with the hospitality sector accounting for almost a quarter of the total. While it is too soon yet to see the full impact, we are hopeful that many of those furloughed will either return to their jobs or be able to find alternative employment.
3. Businesses and organisations from across the city and from multiple sectors are now reporting significant challenges in recruitment, rising prices for raw materials, and disruptions in supply, particularly where that is from overseas. There are concerns that this is holding back recovery and providing a brake on growth.
4. In response to the recruitment challenges, the Council’s Skills, Adult Education and Economic Development teams continue to work closely together. With the hospitality sector, we have helped to roll out specific initiatives to help train chefs and fill the many gaps elsewhere, with this work continuing in months ahead. Connections are strong with many other sectors in York, underpinned by the engagement undertaken to develop the new skills plan. This co-development approach is supporting initiatives to further develop apprenticeship opportunities, work with key sectors including rail and smart transport, and our continued focus on wellbeing and mental health support to businesses and employees.
5. As businesses reconfigure for the post-Covid recovery, property is a significant focus. There remains strong demand for office space, and also considerable movement in the city centre retail and hospitality sector, with a string of purchases along Coney Street over the summer heralding the tentative revival of York’s original high street.
6. The City Centre economy has seen a strong summer, with footfall approaching levels last seen before the pandemic with higher levels of expenditure. This has continued beyond the end of the school holidays and is still being seen at time of writing in early October. York was in the top 5 for both spend and footfall in the September 2021 iteration of Centre for Cities’ high street recovery tracker.
Recommendations
7.
The Executive Member is asked
to:
1) Note the contents of the report
Reason: To support York’s economic response to the COVID -19 pandemic
State of the Economy
8. This report covers the period July 2021 to October 2021, when the economy moved through the final step of the Government’s Roadmap to Recovery. In the July report we touched on the challenges being seen in hospitality recruitment and more broadly in semi-skilled staff such as HGV drivers. These challenges continue and are now being seen more broadly across the economy.
9. The Council’s Economic Development team has expanded in recent months, taking in the Business Team from Make It York and recruiting to vacant posts. With the additional capacity, we have begun to monitor a broader range of data including the number of vacancies advertised in the city. There are currently 3,400 jobs in York being advertised by employers, up 10% from the beginning of August. There are vacancies across the economy, in full time, part time and temporary roles, and in jobs at all salary levels.
10. Staff shortages are resulting in employers increasing pay levels in an attempt both to attract more recruits and to retain existing staff. While this is beneficial for employees, it will no doubt have an impact on prices and may drive inflation if traditional economic theory is played out. Staff shortages are also impacting on opening hours for customer facing businesses and are limiting, for example, the number of customers that restaurants can serve and more generally on the ability of businesses to take on new work. This is acting as a brake on potential growth, as well as impacting on recovery.
11. Intelligence from our business community also reveals strong upward pressure in materials costs and availability, particularly where importing is involved. This is partly due to covid related disruption across the globe, but is compounded by our changing trading and labour mobility arrangements after leaving the EU. The recent challenges with regard to the availability of fuel in retail outlets do not appear to have significantly impacted on businesses though. Increased materials costs will also be seen in increased prices in the months ahead. At present, intelligence suggests that customers are accepting price increases, but this will not continue indefinitely.
12. As can be seen in Annexe 1, the city centre is performing well, with footfall and spend both strong over the past quarter. There are plenty of customers for businesses, with that picture extending beyond the school holiday period and into early October. We have also heard from out-of-town locations that trading is strong in York in contrast to other locations, with the average high street footfall across the country being around 18% below what was seen in 2019.
13. Investor interest in York continues, both in terms of commercial property investment, and in acquisitions and expansions. The recent months have seen 20 recorded sales of such property, including two large hotels (Dean Court and Monk Bar), three offices and a dozen retail sites.
14. We have also been able to announce significant investment in York businesses including ETAS, a subsidiary of Bosch which provides embedded software to the automotive industry. York tech business Piksel was recently bought by Harrogate-based Redcentric in a multi-million pound deal which will strengthen the business’s position in the market.
Unemployment, Furlough and Job Vacancies
15.
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Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that York’s unemployment rate has consecutively fallen for the past six months (see figure 1). The number of York residents claiming out-of-work benefits has dropped to a total of 3,645 in August 2021. This is 1,435 below the peak in September 2020 but still higher than at any time since 2012.
16. York continues to be the city with the lowest percentage increase in unemployment, as tracked by think tank Centre for Cities, comparing favourably with the UK average and all northern regions.[1]
17. Data published by the Government on the Job Retention Scheme (JRS) shows that the total number of people on JRS in York dropped from 4,700 to 3,100 between June and August 2021.[2] Analysis of the data shows that there is an even split across genders and age bands. This is the first time the gender split has been even, with females outnumbering males on furlough for the previous year.
18. A sectoral analysis of JRS data for York shows that the Accommodation and Food Services sector has the highest amount of workers still on furlough, with 800 people accessing the scheme in July 2021, although this has decreased markedly as lockdown restrictions eased. The Wholesale and Retail sector ranked second highest with 390 workers supported through the scheme.
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19. The latest Government data on the Self-Employed Income Support Scheme (SEISS) shows that a total of 1,800 claimed self-employed support by the middle of August 2021 although this can only be regarded as an interim figure; the fifth iteration of the SEISS grant continues to run until the end of September 2021.[3] For comparison purposes, around 4,800 people claimed self-employed support at the end of May 2021.[4]
Business Intelligence
20. Conversations with York businesses during the last quarter have been dominated by difficulties in recruiting new staff and the general shortage and rising cost of materials. We also saw an initial rebound of the economy with the Covid-19 restrictions being lifted during the last quarter. According to the Bank of England, the economy as a whole saw growth in consumer demand following the reopening of non-essential stores and this was dramatically reflected in the retail, and domestic tourism and ultimately other parts of the economy.
21. Spending on household goods and furniture, sports and outdoor equipment, technology and jewellery was particularly strong However, supply-chain issues such as materials shortages and haulage bottlenecks were reported to be restricting the availability of some goods – such as furniture, new cars and electrical items – resulting in longer lead times. Some contacts reported being obliged to streamline product ranges as a result of shortages, and some expressed concern about the impact of supply-chain issues on the availability of goods in the run-up to Christmas. Contacts also said that demand for footwear and clothing was starting to pick up – possibly in response to the reopening of the hospitality sector, and as people prepared to return to office working.
22. In the services sector, contacts in hospitality and leisure reported record levels of demand in July and August boosted by staycation effects. By contrast, contacts in large cities said demand remained very subdued due to a lack of international tourists and the absence of the office workers who drive their retail economies. Bad weather in some parts of the UK over the summer had also kept some customers away, though in general contacts operating outdoor attractions reported stronger demand than those running indoor activities, such as gyms and bingo halls. Personal care businesses, such as hairdressing salons, reported sales returning to more normal levels following an initial boost after restrictions were lifted.
23. Contacts in accountancy, legal and consultancy continued to report good levels of demand, even after bringing back all staff from furlough. There is strong activity relating to corporate finance and business acquisitions some of which was put on hold since the start of the pandemic. Demand for loans and finance has been steady but not showing any huge upswing in demand. Conversations with the local banking sector reflect this, with tighter scrutiny being applied to loan requests as they consider potential constraints and supply chain disruption alongside labour shortages hindering growth. This has affected the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic including the hospitality and leisure sector.
24. Nationally, manufacturing output was supported by strong demand, however the rate of growth has slowed due to shortages of materials and labour. A combination of strong worldwide demand for goods, global supply-chain issues, transportation issues and labour shortages constrained output and stretched lead times. There was some evidence of this locally with one large engineering/construction company experiencing some labour and material shortages. The same company has just installed a new robotic assembling line, not just to head off the impact of labour shortages but also to increase efficiency. The team is currently working with the company to identify consultants to analyse the new processes and fully understand the value stream impact. A local automotive IT company officially opened its Centre of Excellence in York and are poised to recruit an additional 40 staff in the coming 18 months but are looking to get the first 20 recruited as soon as possible. In July and August, companies welcomed confirmation that changes to the rules will exempt double-vaccinated employees from having to self-isolate.
25. Last quarter it was noted that the city saw over 43 commercial properties change ownership in the last 12 months to June. Investment and property sales in the city centre is still robust with the last quarter seeing the sale of 11 properties. Seven of these were retail storefronts, 2 hotels, 1 manufacturing and the post office building on Lendal. Despite the huge uptick in online retail sales, there is still strong demand and interest in acquiring retail storefront units in the city centre.
26. Office occupancy is still some way off the pre pandemic levels and there is no evidence that this will change soon. Most companies are still advocating some degree of remote working with some workers returning for part of the week. Some companies are looking to maintain their current space but planning to use it differently with a mixture of remote and office working, using the space for teams to meet up one or two days per week. This is especially true for the smaller office-based companies, however, the larger ones are slowly bringing some staff back into the city.
27. Office rental demand remains strong, with the new Hudson Quarter development welcoming their first tenants, and significant Cabinet Office interest ahead of decisions on the Government Hub network. University of York’s partnership with the Council to run the Guildhall as a business hub is also a positive sign, and early reports suggest significant interest from across the economy from businesses wanting to move in.
28. Demand for industrial property on the on the outskirts of the city continues to be strong with several units being developed speculatively. These are between 5,000 sq ft and 30,000 sq ft and are likely to be taken as soon as they are available. The team is currently working with 6 companies looking for industrial space on the outskirts of the city, all of which are proving challenging. In the event we are not able to find suitable premises it is likely these businesses may move to other areas away from York. The other scenario is the lack of additional space may prevent these companies from growing and creating additional jobs.
29. Innovation is continuing to play a major role in companies big and small and many see it as a chance to enter new markets. This has not changed in the last few months and businesses expect to continue to review products and assets with a view to mutually beneficial collaborations.
30. The Economic Growth Team held an initial meeting with various influencers in the rail industry recently to brainstorm ideas on how to better support the sector in the city. There is a follow up meeting planned with a wider cross section of the sector and the aim is to gather intelligence from the sector and encourage collaboration as well as work with the sector on mutual ambitions and a growth strategy that will create jobs and foster inward investment. Discussion topics will include skills, innovation, premises and how best the city can collaborate to attract the new GBR headquarters which has the potential to create additional jobs in the city.
Inward Investment
31. As part of the changes to economic development arrangements, the Make It York Inward Investment function transferred to the Council on 1 September 2021. Over the reporting period, the team responded to 32 investment enquiries, with seven of those being overseas enquiries from businesses looking for UK locations, a further ten being UK based companies exploring York as a new opportunity, and the remaining fifteen represented by York businesses planning to move or expand within the city.
32. As is noted elsewhere in this report, we were delighted to support Bosch with their investment in ETAS, which provides embedded software for the automotive industry. ETAS are a real York success, having spun out of the University of York before being bought by Bosch in 2003. Their software is present in almost every modern car. We welcomed the UK Managing Director of Bosch to York in September, with the Lord Mayor hosting a networking lunch at the Mansion House and the Leader of the Council cutting the ribbon for the official opening of the new Software Centre of Excellence.
33. In recent months we have welcomed specialist tool manufacturer Marcrist International’s tech team to York, helping them find offices for their new team. Specialist engineering firm JME Consultants have been supported to open a new York office, as have data compliance training company BLS Stay Compliant.
34. Investment interest in York comes from many sectors, with several current enquiries being from food and drink manufacturers, IT and data remaining strong attractors, and ongoing enquiries from tourism businesses, management consultancies and health businesses. York is seen across all sectors as an attractive location with a well-qualified workforce, strong quality of life and great transport connections.
35. As thoughts move towards post-Covid working arrangements, we are seeing many enquiries from businesses that would like to shift to a more flexible use of office space. Businesses are shifting towards co-working locations, backed up with options for occasional team meetings and high-quality spaces to meet clients. There is already strong demand for the new space at the Guildhall, which will be managed by the University of York.
Business Support
36. September 2021 saw the Make it York Business Team amalgamate with City of York Council’s Economic Growth team in a move to strengthen the delivery of business support, economic development and inward investment activity across York.
37. Between July and September 2021, the Council’s Business Growth Managers provided support to over 85 businesses across a wide range of sectors. Notable success include an Edtech business receiving a £7k grant from the Department for International Trade to expand into Chile, and £4.5k from the Digital Enterprise programme. A video production company has received a £12k grant and a construction company has received a £10k grant from Digital Enterprise. In addition to the above, three Connect over Coffee networking sessions ran over the period being reported on with a total of 29 business participating across these sessions.
38. With regards to key business issues being raised, the majority of businesses cited staffing and recruitment as a major challenge, as well as the supply and price of raw materials. We have also heard of a range of businesses that are holding back investment due to the lack of staff and rising costs. Business Growth Managers are still receiving several request for capital grants to support premises/unit fit-out support, with limited support provision currently available to York businesses. Growth Managers are also reporting significant business demand for marketing support (including website design) – we anticipate that the Council’s forthcoming Business Voucher Scheme will be able to support businesses with these needs.
Economic Strategy
39. Work continues on the development of a new, inclusive Economic Strategy for York, with a separate update being provided to the Executive Member’s October 2021 Decision Session. Engagement with York’s residents, workers and businesses took place over the summer through the Council’s Our Big Conversation, with a coherent approach to engagement undertaken to address the overlapping themes of York’s economy, carbon reduction and transport.
40. A second phase of engagement is being planned over the next month to sense check initial findings and explore key themes. A new Economic Strategy will be brought back to the Council’s Executive for sign-off in January 2021. The Council’s Economy and Place Policy and Scrutiny Committee will continue to play a key role in reviewing the development of a new inclusive, Economic Strategy for York.
Skills Strategy
41. York’s 10-Year Skills Strategy, developed in partnership with the York’s Skills and Employment Board, was endorsed by the Executive Member at his September Decision Session. Ongoing engagement will take place with stakeholders to continue to shape the delivery of the strategy.
42. A separate update on apprenticeship activity in York will be provided to the Executive Member’s October Decision Session.
Lord Mayor’s Hospitality Summit
43. In response to the skills and recruitment challenges being faced by York’s hospitality sector, the Lord Mayor of York hosted a Hospitality Summit on 27th July to discuss the challenges being faced by the sector and to collectively identify and develop appropriate solutions.
44. In a wide-ranging discussion, important issues such as wages, recruitment, skills, career progression, and the public perception of the sector and transport infrastructure for employees were featured. Possible solutions identified to support York’s hospitality sector included flexible training provision to fill keep industry position (such as cheffing), the creation of a local hospitality PR campaign to communicate to jobseekers and those seeking a career change the progression routes and varied roles that exist in the sector, as well as incentivised (and improved) public transport provision for industry workers.
45. Strong progress continues on the development of a sector-based work academy, in conjunction with Jobcentre Plus, York College and industry representatives, to develop kitchen assistants who in time can progress to chefs. It is hoped that the first courses can begin in November so that participants would be joining employers during Christmas, the busiest time of year. As part of the initiative, employers would offer guaranteed interviews for permanent jobs at the end of the course.
ARG Business Support Voucher Scheme
46. At the Council’s August 2021 Executive meeting, Members agreed a recommendation to utilise £500k from its final £1.4m instalment of Additional Restrictions Grant (ARG) from the Government to provide additional support to local businesses. This support will be provided through the creation of a business support voucher scheme which will enable small and micro businesses to navigate the challenges of the pandemic, stabilise their business models and relaunch and refresh their offer with help from York’s business community. Our scheme will enable businesses to think through the key issues they face before accessing local specialist resource to begin implementing these changes. Through the voucher scheme local businesses will get up to £1,000 of expertise and support from other businesses across the city – not only helping those in receipt of the vouchers, but also generating income for other local businesses.
47. Development of the voucher scheme is well underway, with specialist consultancy support commissioned to help the Council design and administer the scheme. We anticipate that our business support voucher scheme will be available for business registrations towards the end of October.
York Business Week 2021
48. This year’s York Business Week will take place between Monday 8th November and Friday 12th November. Now in its 11th year, the week-long programme of free virtual and in-person events will focus on supporting York’s business community, inspiring growth, creativity and innovation.
49. Having worked in close collaboration with York’s key business support agencies during the pandemic to great success, the Council’s Economic Growth team have adopted a similar partnership approach to this year’s Business Week programme. City of York Council, the Federation of Small Businesses, York & North Yorkshire Chamber of Commerce, the Institute of Directors, York BID, Make it York, the University of York, York St John University, York & North Yorkshire LEP and the Ad:venture programme have all been involved in shaping and delivering this year’s week of activities.
50. The week-long programme will include events, workshops and seminars to support York’s business community now and in the coming months. More information on York Business Week and this year’s programme can be found here.
Small Business Saturday
51. To promote both York Business Week and Christmas, the Economic Growth team has secured the services of the Small Business Saturday fleet. Small Business Saturday is a grassroots, non-commercial campaign which highlights small business success and encourages customers to ‘shop local’ and support small businesses in their communities. Now in its ninth year, the initiative will be visiting Haxby and Wigginton on Tuesday 9th November, providing an opportunity to showcase local business through a series of media interviews, and their current campaign – ‘Small Business, Big Thank You’ – which is especially pertinent after a difficult 18 months for businesses as a result of the pandemic.
52. Planning for Small Business Saturday’s visit to Haxby is currently underway, with several strands of activity being considered to maximise the impact of the visit, including a multi-media PR campaign and the chance for participation from the local business community.
Secondary Shopping Areas
53. The Haxby and Wigginton Area Study is the second of two planned studies supported by the Secondary Shopping Area Fund, the first was a similar project on Acomb Front Street. The Council has procured consultants to undertake a study to better understand the needs of residents living in Haxby and Wigginton, the traders who work there and the evolving needs and expectations of those who use the area, and how this impacts our understanding of the current shopping area.
54. Through the study, the Council wants to support Haxby and Wigginton in strengthening its contribution to economic growth across York, and to gain an insight as to how the area is likely to change, and what opportunities and challenges this presents in terms of place-making. Once clear ambitions have been set out, this will enable us to seek suitable options for capital funding through the Council’s internal budgets or access funding made available through the LEP and/or central Government.
55. The consultants are now in the design phase of the consultation element of the study, which is running in parallel with a consultation on the new library in Haxby. The two teams are working together to ensure clear stakeholder briefings, a social media campaign and press promotion also take place. The public consultation is expected to begin mid-October and will run for six weeks before the findings are collated and worked into proposals for consideration in the local area.
Work with Traders’ Associations and ARG funding
56. The Council has endeavoured to distribute its Additional Restrictions Grant (ARG) funding in a way that has been as equitable as possible, reaching many small businesses, as well as larger ones. Particular heed has been paid to those most adversely affected by restrictions on movement and social distancing, including music, community and sports venues, accommodation and hospitality sectors, as well as the international travel industry.
57. At the July Trader’s Association roundtable session, chaired by the Executive Member, it was announced that funding set aside from ARG would support trader-led events and projects to encourage visitors and residents back into York’s city centre and secondary shopping areas. Several organisations came forward with proposals, and as a result, the Council has been able to fund a number of projects including:
· Snow in the Shambles: a repeat of an already successful project to add a festive feel to the well-known area of York using artificial snow (Shambles Area Trading Association);
· Micklegate Mingle: a Father Christmas experience for children, including gifts and live music. Local traders will set up stalls, or stay open later, and provide the local community with some family friendly fun (Micklegate Business Initiative);
· Heritage Trail maps: a family-friendly, free physical map to share the secrets, history and magic of the Goodramgate area (Goodramgate Traders’ Association); and,
· A series of promotional videos: commissioned from an independent operator in the city, these videos will promote Indie York and its 200+ member businesses through a paid for social media campaign (Indie York).
58. A small amount of funding remains from this allocation, and further creative and innovative ideas from traders have been received. In particular, applications from Traders’ Associations operating in areas outside of the city centre have been encouraged. This will be an opportunity to promote individual pockets of interest with the Christmas period approaching, and decisions on the latest round of project proposals will be made shortly.
59. In addition to the above, August 2021 saw £100k allocated from the Council’s ARG to boost large events and to increase footfall for those businesses most affected by the pandemic. Four key music venues have been earmarked for support (The National Centre for Early Music, The Crescent, Fulford Arms and Victoria Vaults), recognising the important contribution they make to York’s cultural sector which has faced major challenges arising from social distancing and Government restrictions. This funding also supports a previous motion from 2019 in which the Council unanimously passed a motion to ‘Protecting Live Music Space’.
60. In addition to support for music venues, £100k has also been allocated to support key events and festivals. Grants have been made on best value in terms of potential numbers of end users and greatest impact on the local business community. Recipients include:
· York Food and Drink Festival;
· York Design Week;
· Ice Trail;
· Aesthetica Film Festival; and
· Jorvik Viking Festival.
A York and North Yorkshire Plan for Growth
61. Work continues on a Plan for Growth for York and North Yorkshire, building upon the foundations set out in the Local Enterprise Partnership’s (LEP) Local Industrial Strategy (agreed in March 2020), Reshaping the Economy post-COVID-19 Plan (October 2020), and draft Devolution Deal (December 2020). The Plan will take forward the LEP’s vision of a Greener Fairer Stronger economy for the sub-region - a carbon negative, circular economy that increase productivity and provides higher paid jobs.
62. The purpose of the Plan for Growth is to set out the next steps for how York and North Yorkshire can recover and grow post-Covid, as well as creating an economic strategic framework that enables partners and stakeholders to work together to achieve ambitious economic outcomes for the sub-region. It is envisaged that a York and North Yorkshire Plan for Growth will provide the basis for future bids to, and influence for, the Government’s Shared Prosperity Funding and further rounds of Levelling Up funding. The Plan will be clearly articulate how the sub-region can make a significant contribution towards the Government’s ambitions for Global Britain, Levelling Up and Net Zero (as articulated in the Government’s national Plan for Growth).
63. Stakeholder and partner engagement and consultation forms a critical part of the LEP’s process for developing a York and North Yorkshire Plan for Growth, and will be undertaken at different stages of the Plan’s development. It is our intention for the LEP to provide an update on the development of the Plan at a future Executive Member Decision Session. It is envisaged that a Plan for Growth will be formally approved by the LEP Board in March 2022.
Local Government Reorganisation and Devolution
64. A decision has been reached by Government to retain City of York Council in its current form and adopt a single unitary council for North Yorkshire. Now that Government has agreed a future model for local government in York and North Yorkshire, we anticipate negotiations on a Devolution Deal for the sub-region to take place shortly.
65. City of York Council officers are currently undertaking work to review the Devolution Deal to ensure that it recognises the role that York plays as a key economic centre within a largely rural geography, and that the asks unlock the full economic potential of our city.
Consultation
66. Consultation on the economy and our COVID response has been through weekly intelligence calls with key partners, Business Leaders’ Group, Outbreak Management Board, York Leadership Group, and regular meetings of the Executive Economic Recovery Group.
Council Plan
67. Our work addresses the following outcomes from the Council Plan:
· Good health and wellbeing;
· Well-paid and an inclusive economy;
· A better start for children and young people;
· A greener and cleaner city; and,
· Safe communities and culture for all.
Implications
· Financial – no financial implications;
· Human Resources (HR) – no implications;
· One Planet Council / Equalities – our work positively supports the Council’s equalities objectives;
· Legal – no implications;
· Crime and Disorder – no implications;
· Information Technology (IT) – no implications;
· Property – no direct implications
Risk Management
There are no specific risks identified in respect of the recommendations.
Contact Details
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Author: |
Chief Officer Responsible for the report:
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Simon BreretonHead of Economic GrowthPlace Directorate
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Tracey CarterDirector for Housing, Economy and Regeneration
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Report Approved |
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Date |
11 October 2021 |
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For further information please contact the author of the report |
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Glossary:
ARG – Additional Restrictions Grant
BID – York Business Improvement District
JRS - Job Retention Scheme
LEP – York and North Yorkshire Local Enterprise Partnership
ONS – Office for National Statistics
SEISS - Self-Employed Income Support Scheme
Background Papers:
Annexes
Annex 1 York BID report: York’s Summer Recovery