York Health and Wellbeing Board






Health and Wellbeing Board

28th October 2020

Report of the Director of Operations North Yorkshire and York, Tees Esk and Wear Valleys NHS Trust


Mental Health Surge Forecast


1.           This report asks Health and Wellbeing Board (HWBB) members to receive a recent presentation from Tees, Esk and Wear Valleys NHS Trust about the impact of Covid-19 on mental health and potential increases in demand for mental health services over the next 5 years.

2.           Health and Wellbeing Board members are asked to receive and note the information held within this report and consider the potential impact and preparations within their own organisations.


3.           The presentation attached provides an overview of the potential impact of Covid-19 on mental health in the population and forecasts the potential impact for secondary care mental health services.  The forecast has brought together a range of research, policy, data analysis expertise from across the Trust and partnerships.

 Main/Key Issues to be Considered

4.           The information provided takes a life course based approach dividing the population into preschool, school-age, working age adult and older people.  Focus has centred on particular segments of the population who have been affected by Covid-19 directly, the lockdown and associated impact of a recession.

5.           The forecast assumes that the 5 year surge will be seen equally over 60 months though this will be further refined as new information and data becomes available.


6.           This forecast was created in consultation with public health, data analysis, research and policy leads within the Trust.


7.           There are no options presented for the Health and Wellbeing Board to consider.


8.           There is no analysis of options for the Health and Wellbeing Board to consider.

 Strategic/Operational Plans

9.           The information provided within this forecast will be considered as part of the Trust’s business planning process and within local partnerships to consider how mental health services and partners within the system can best respond to current and future demand. 


10.        Health and Wellbeing Board members are asked to consider the implications for their own organisations to meet the surge in mental health demand over the next 5 years.


11.        Current and future NHS and public funds / allocation available for mental health services will need to consider forecast data re capacity, demand and targeted deployment of resources.

Human Resources (HR)

12.        Recruitment to additional workforce roles may be required and will need the skills to meet a wide range of needs within mental health.  Increases may also be required within occupational health settings across a broad range of organisations.


13.        The impact of Covid-19 will exacerbate current inequalities of physical health and adversely impact vulnerable communities including those with mental health needs.

        Risk Management

14.        There is a risk of increased levels of mental health need within the population of York and a risk that this will impact all health and social care services across the system.


15.        The Health and Wellbeing Board are asked to receive and note the content of the mental health forecast presentation and consider the implications within their own organisations re how this  may impact and how they can respond to an increase in need. 

16.        The Health and Wellbeing Board are asked to consider and identify new opportunities for agencies to work together to meet increasing levels of need in mental health over the next 5 years.

Contact Details


Chief Officer Responsible for the report:

Naomi Lonergan

Director of Operations, North Yorkshire and York

Tees Esk and Wear Valleys NHS Trust





Report Approved










Specialist Implications Officer(s) 



Wards Affected: 





For further information please contact the author of the report

Background Papers: